A version of “I don’t care about Turkish politics anymore, I’m fed up with it, disappointing as always” was uttered by Turkish opposition party CHP’s voter base in the weeks following the presidential elections in May 2023. CHP’s presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu lost to incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Both figures have been in the political scene for more than two decades. Özgür Özel’s election as the new chairman of CHP on November 4th was a crumb of long-overdue change for CHP, the main Turkish opposition party. What attracted public attention to this change was that he is only forty-nine years old.
The hopelessness of 48% who voted against the current regime reached new heights after Erdoğan’s re-election. His grip on power increased exponentially since 2002 and he is generally known as Turkey’s strongman now. Despite his monopoly on the political scene, others have been in the game as long as him. Kılıçdaroğlu gradually rose to prominence after being in parliament that year. He has been leading the opposition party since 2010 despite how unsuccessfully it performs. Likewise, so many senior politicians remain in their positions with extremely low approval rates. The faces never seem to change. Ever. The dissatisfied opposition voters, and mainly the young population, are tired of watching the grandfathers at the top.
The problems are not limited to faces being old. The institutional and ideological issues are as notorious as the senior people. CHP and other opposition parties lacked activity, unity, and consistency for a long time. The original Republican party since the nation’s establishment, CHP advocated for the status quo. Its main pillars consisted of secularism, republicanism, reformism, and nationalism. In the 60s, it rebranded itself as “left-of-center” to align with global ideologies at a time when left-wing vs. right-wing politics was heating up domestically. Now, no one knows. There is no ideology about the opposition that can appeal to people besides the party’s historical importance and that it’s not the current regime. So far, Özel called for “return to true self” and expressed intentions to get rid of the “worn-out.” While still ambiguous what his claims mean, the opposition’s reformation is this decade’s longing.
No party can face the ruling party AKP alone, but coalitions are also inadequate in providing an alternative. AKP is considered right-wing and conservative, but has revivalist ideological tendencies as well. The Middle East Institute observes AKP policies as being neo-Ottomanist and pan-Islamist, and they became increasingly influential in the region. On the other hand, the opposition coalition during the elections called themselves the Nation Alliance which involved ideologies from all over the spectrum. However, the only substantial cause for the alliance was overthrowing Erdoğan. During the presidential election, Kılıçdaroğlu claimed his vote count was incorrect and AKP was rigging the ballots. Ironically, he and his coalitions fell dead silent right after the loss. Their failure to act against alleged injustice and foster morale faced public scrutiny.
Few days after being elected, Özel announced that CHP has a new open door coalition strategy and is planning “to meet with all parties.” Transparency will become an important asset to regain support, but the road will not be easy. The differences among opposition parties are so stark that how effectively the compromises can be managed is yet to be seen. During the elections, unity of antagonistic versions of nationalism, radical Islam, and conservatism under a common goal did more harm than good. However, new talks will begin with new faces, and this means more possibilities for a genuine reform. AKP built operation webs and altered systems in every level, from executive to judiciary. While a survey done by MetroPoll research shows that 50% saw this as a positive development, another question indicates that only 39% believes that Özel’s election will increase support for CHP. 33% believes that there will be no change. Many from the opposition promised change in the past and delivered nothing. The groundwork is necessary to persuade voters that there will be a difference this time. CHP needs to demonstrate its willingness to act starting from the local level and come up with a plan to reinstate a viable system. To change the calcified dysfunctional order, the opposition needs to stop acting as if deep down they want the incumbents to stay.
The local elections scheduled to take place in March 2024 is going to be an important indicator of the opposition’s success in the near future. Currently, the mayors represent CHP in Istanbul and Ankara. Both Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş confirmed their candidacy for re-election. The stakes will be high for these important spots. İmamoğlu in particular is an interesting candidate, as his political trajectory is often compared to Erdoğan’s. The general public regards him as one of the rare individuals who might threaten the current regime’s reign. In 2019, he had won the local elections to become the mayor of Istanbul by a small margin, only for AKP to denounce it as being corrupt. They demanded the elections to be held again, which resulted with İmamoğlu’s victory by a more significant margin. This phenomenon revealed a voter base that opposed AKP but refrained from voting in the initial elections, which later gained hope upon the win and became more determined to support İmamoğlu. Moreover, prior to the presidential elections, İmamoğlu was arbitrarily charged with insulting the incumbent. He received a political ban which prevented him from running against Erdoğan. For many, this mirrored the prison sentence Erdoğan faced early in his political career as a result of his fundamentalist Islam stance, back when secular values reigned supreme in Turkish politics. Political path similarities and charisma resemblance hints at İmamoğlu’s leadership potential. At 53 years-old, he is perceived as a more potent threat to the current regime than his elderly counterparts. Thus, his re-election as the mayor of Istanbul next year is crucial.
It is known that Turkey is having an identity crisis and is rather inconsistent regarding where it stands in foreign policy. However, important decisions are ahead. Considering the rapidly escalating situations in near regions, determining the country’s place as a regional and international actor is increasingly critical. The world can use a reliable Turkey for a variety of geopolitical reasons like the East-West balance and having an approachable power in the Middle East. But it needs to address domestic inconsistencies to do so. The change inside starts with mobilizing the hibernating opposition and focusing on March 2024 local elections.